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3 Physicists Use Experimental Evidence To Show CO2's Capacity To Absorb Radiation Has Saturated

3 Physicists Use Experimental Evidence To Show CO2’s Capacity To Absorb Radiation Has Saturated

By on 23. April 2024

Adding CO2 to the atmosphere can have no significant climatic effect when rising above the threshold of about 300 ppm. Due to saturation, higher and higher concentrations do not lead to any further absorption of radiation.

If one were to paint a white surface black so as to allow it to absorb as much heat as possible, it is well known the first layer of paint has the most dominant impact on heat absorption. A second coat covers up any remaining grayish color and perhaps a few spots missed on the first layer. By the third layer, there is effectively no more heat absorption that can be attained with the additional coat, as the surface is saturated in black. It cannot become blacker.

Three Polish physicists have focused their attention on this saturation principle as it applies to CO2 in three recently published papers (Kubicki et al., 2024, 2022, and 2020). Their latest (Kubicki et al., 2024), published in Applications in Engineering Science, summarizes the experimental evidence from their 2020 and 2022 publications substantiating the conclusion that “as a result of saturation processes, emitted CO2 does not directly cause an increase in global temperature.”

“From the conducted considerations, it follows that both in Eq. (4) and Eq. (6), the value of absorption is limited. In the first case, it cannot exceed 1, and in the second case, it cannot exceed the value of ψ less than unity. Therefore, for a sufficiently large mass m, saturation must occur, and further increase in mass will result in a negligible increase in absorption.”

This research adds another layer to more than 50 years of research on the CO2 saturation principle.

“Schack (1972)…demonstrated that for a concentration of 0.03% of carbon dioxide in the air, the absorption process in the troposphere is saturated.”

The authors are concerned about the recent push to rely on modeling and assumptions about CO2’s capacity to drive changes in global temperature rather than observational evidence. They point out the current CO2-is-the-climate-control-knob zeitgeist is no more than a hypothesis.

“This unequivocally suggests that the officially presented impact of anthropogenic CO2 increase on Earth’s climate is merely a hypothesis rather than a substantiated fact.”

Image Source: Kubicki et al., 2024

In their 2022 paper the authors showed that at 400 ppm the CO2 concentration can no longer cause any increase in temperature, as no more absorption of thermal radiation can occur due to saturation.

“…the experiment described in articles [5] an [6] was carried out, where it was shown that thermal radiation from the hot surface of the Moon, after passing through the Earth’s atmosphere, is not absorbed in carbon dioxide. Thus, it was shown for this radiation there is a complete saturation of the process.”

“It can be seen that practically with the mass of carbon dioxide of about 1.5 kg/m², the process of absorption of thermal radiation goes into saturation… So, for the current concentration of 400 ppm for which the mass of CO2 in the atmosphere is ~6 kg/m², the limit is four times exceeded.”

“Thus, it can be presumed that the carbon dioxide additionally emitted into the atmosphere does not absorb thermal radiation and thus is not a greenhouse gas.”

Image Source: Kubicki et al., 2022

In their 2020 paper the three physicists reported their experimental evidence can “disprove [the] general theorem” that increasing the concentration of absorbing gases will “cause strong increase of the absorption of the infrared radiation.”

In their experiment they found that there was no difference (120.9 vs. 121.0 μW) in the power of air, with 0.04% CO2, to absorb infrared radiation versus the capacity of 100% CO2 to absorb radiation due to the saturation effect.

Image Source: Kubicki et al., 2020

Recently, other scientists (Chen et al., 2023) also reported that CO2 has a severely reduced effect on atmospheric transmissivity due to (a) absorption saturation (CO2 can have no effect beyond a pre-industrial concentration), and because (b) water vapor and cloud forcing overlap and thus dominate absorption in CO2’s band.

“[Transmissivity] in the CO2 band center is unchanged by increased CO2 as the absorption is already saturated…”

“[T]he water vapor and CO2 overlapping at an absorbing band prevents absorption by additional CO2.”

Image Source: Chen et al., 2023

Physicist Dieter Schildknecht (2020) also reported on the saturation of the CO2 impact once it reaches 300 ppm concentrations, concluding that because of this saturation further CO2 increases “cannot affect the earth’s climate.”

“The absorption reaches values close to 100% for a realistic CO2 content of 0.03%, [so] it is concluded that any further increase of (anthropogenic) CO2 cannot lead to an appreciably stronger absorption of radiation, and consequently cannot affect the earth’s climate.”

Image Source: Schildknecht, 2020

Dr. Easterbrook also illustratively referenced the saturation effect in research published in 2016, calculating the effect of a 80 ppm increase in CO2 as only about 0.01°C.

Notice on the pie chart there is almost no detectable change after the CO2 concentration has reached ~240 ppm.

Image Source: Easterbrook, 2016

In the 1970s, before the anthropogenic global warming narrative had evolved into what it is today, it was common for scientists to admit the CO2 radiative impact is already saturated.

According to Weare and Snell (1974), doubling of the CO2 concentration was thought to lead to a global surface temperature increase of 0.7 K, but a six-fold increase (~2,000 ppm) would only raise temperature 1.0 K more “due to saturation of the 15 μm band.”

Per Rasool and Schneider (1971), increasing the CO2 concentration 10-fold (over 3,000 ppm) would not increase temperatures more than 2.5°C “because the 15 μm band ‘saturates’.”

Image Source: Weare and Snell, 1974 and Rasool and Schneider, 1971

Other scientists at the time estimated that when increasing CO2 “seven times the normal concentrations, the average temperature increase is about 1°C” (Zdunkowski et al., 1975), or that doubled CO2 concentrations lead to 0.30°C warming, but quadrupled CO2 (~1250 ppm) leads to just 0.48°C warming (Gates et al., 1981). Again, this is due to the saturation effect.

Image Source: Zdunkowski et al., 1975 and  Gates et al., 1981

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Winter Weather Slams Into Large Parts Of Europe…Madrid Spain Sees Snow!

By on 21. April 2024

The past winter in Germany was a mild one, as spring arrived early and lots of plants woke up from their winter slumber. But an unusual blast of wintry weather threatens crops and plants as temperatures could drop to minus 8°C by Monday morning in Germany. 

Winter is back. Image cropped from Wetteronline video here.

Online Wetteronline.de here reports snow fell overnight across many regions “in the Teutoburg Forest, Sauerland, Taunus, Eifel and Rhön. There it snowed down to an altitude of around 200 meters.” See photos.

In northern Bavaria, wetteronline here reports of “heavy snowfalls and numerous accidents on the freeways and no progress was possible on secondary roads in some regions.”

See video footage, Bavaria, here. 

Germany’s DWD national weather service reports that winter has arrived even in the country’s low mountain ranges as a blocking high pressure system establishes itself over the Atlantic, thus blocking the west-east path of the low pressure areas.

The low pressure systems are now moving in from the north and pumping cold Arctic air with a northerly current that has brought winter back to the low mountain ranges. In the northern areas of the Thuringian Forest and the Ore Mountain region, 20 cm of snow were expected. Yesterday Großen Arber was covered by 51 of snow.

It remains to be seen what impact this will have on spring plants and crops.

Madrid sees late April snow

Not only Germany has been hit hard by the unusual winterlike weather, Agrarheute here reports on how Spain has been “hit by a severe onset of winter” and that snow has blanketed the Madrid region. and has posed a threat to fruit crops.




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New Study Unveils Global Warming’s 65-Year-Old ‘Evaporation Paradox’ Problem

By on 18. April 2024

Evaporation is supposed to increase with warming. But, per a new study (Jin et al., 2024), “observation results around the world have shown that evaporation has been steadily declining since the 1950s.” This is referred to as the anthropogenic global warming “evaporation paradox” problem, where models and assumptions are contradicted by observations.

According to the IPCC (AR6) and the most seminal paper on the subject (Trenberth, 2011, with 3800 citations), “anthropogenic forcings will drive an increase in global mean evaporation over most oceanic areas (high confidence),” as “increased heating leads to greater evaporation.”

Image Source: IPCC, 2021 (AR6), Trenberth, 2011

But new paper once again points out that observations conflict with the anthropogenic global warming narrative.

“Paradoxically, against the backdrop of rising global temperatures, terrestrial observation results around the world have shown that Epan has been steadily declining since the 1950s…”

“The ‘evaporation paradox’ phenomenon has been reported in many studies on regional or global scales.”

The authors acknowledge it is “widely proposed” there will be “increased evaporation in open water bodies” with warming. So their results, which show declining evaporation since the 1950s, may “seem surprising.”

“At first glance, these results may seem surprising, since the near-surface air temperature has been rising, and it is widely proposed that warming climate will make the air drier and promote the hydrological cycle, which will lead to increased evaporation in open water bodies, including pan evaporators.”

If it can indeed be established that evaporation increases with warming, and, simultaneously, evaporation trends can be shown to be declining, at what point do we question if there has indeed been sufficiently significant warming in the regions where evaporation is declining? Why is referring to these trends as a surprising “paradox” that can perhaps be explained away with more assumptions the better option?

Image Source: Jin et al., 2024

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Rise And Fall Of The German Economy… Energy Debacle Leading To Economic Meltdown

By on 16. April 2024

The number of Germany’s corporate insolvencies in March reached the highest level on record, new data reveal. It’s the Great Green Energies economic debacle

Blackout News here calls the trend “alarming” and that it is “a clear sign of the worsening economic crisis. The news are based on data released by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

“There has been nothing comparable since 2016, the year the data was first collected,” reports Blackout News. “This development not only points to internal company problems, it also highlights the extensive economic challenges the country is facing.”

Insolvencies are even worse than during the Corona pandemic lockdown years.

“Exorbitantly high energy costs”

Analysts say the main driver behind the dire trend are Germany’s exorbitantly high energy costs, mostly due to the country’s mismanaged foray into green energies – like wind and solar – and the transition away from affordable and stable conventional energy sources like natural gas, coal and nuclear power.

“The wave of corporate insolvencies cannot be explained by poor business decisions alone. Rather, it is the high cost of energy, which is driving up operating costs in times of global uncertainty, and a tax policy that leaves little room for investment,” Blackout News adds.

Both, left and center-right, are to blame

The push to green energies, and away from conventional sources, began in earnest under the government led by Angela Merkel and her CDU center right party. The latest Socialist-Green coalition government, led by Olaf Scholz and Robert Habeck, have since pushed draconian policies that have only exacerbated Germany’s economic and energy woes.

Most experts argue that the government hasn’t been fixing problems, rather it has been making them far worse. It simply refuses to acknowledge the reality.

Industrial exodus…country needs more than just hope

“The current crisis demands far more from political decision-makers than just hoping for a calming of the market,” adds Blackout News.  “Comprehensive measures are needed…the measures include a reduction in energy costs.”

Blackout News recently reported on the “industrial exodus” as “Germany’s economic crisis forces traditional companies to flee.”




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Antarctica Is Colder, Icier Now Than Any Time In 5000 Years. The Last Warm Period Was 1000 Years Ago.

By on 15. April 2024

More evidence emerges that Antarctica has undergone rapid glacier and sea ice expansion in recent centuries, in line with the long-term and recent Antarctic cooling trend.

West Antarctica’s mean annual surface temperatures cooled by more than -1.8°C (-0.93°C per decade) from 1999-2018 (Zhang et al., 2023).

Not just West Antarctica, but most of the continent also has cooled by more than 1°C in the 21st century. See, for example, the ~1°C per decade cooling trend for East Antarctica (2000 to 2018) shown in Fig. ES1 (right).

Image Source: Zhang et al., 2023

According to a new study, about 6000 years ago Antarctica’s Collins Glacier’s frontline was a full 1 km southwest of its current extent. The frontline advanced to today’s extent ~5000 years ago.

“Previous studies proposed that 6000 yr BP, the frontline position of the Collins Glacier was located 1 km further south west than the present, and that the current frontline was first attained at approximately 5000 yr BP.”

The glacier then continuously retreated south of the modern extent for another 4000 years, with peak ice loss 1000 years ago (as shown in the 1000-year “Proglacial lake environment” image). In the last 1000 years this glacier has rapidly re-advanced back to the glaciated extent from 5000 years ago, which is in line with the sustained cooling trend ongoing since the Medieval Warm Period.

Image Source: Piccini et al., 2024

Throughout the Holocene (Medieval Warm Period, Roman Warm Period, and earlier) and until a few hundred years ago (from ~7100 to 500 years before present), coastal Antarctica’s Victoria Land (VLC) was substantially warmer than today. The Ross Sea was also sufficiently ice-free to allow for elephant seal populations (as large as ~200,000 individuals) to thrive at 73-78°S.

Today, however, elephant seal populations – which require extended sea ice-free sea waters to breed, forage, and provide nourishment for their pups – can no longer subsist anywhere even remotely close to the coasts of the Antarctic continent. It is now too cold and the sea ice is too extensive.

The substantially reduced number of remaining elephant seals existing today can only survive on subantarctic islands (South Georgia, Macquarie) at southern South American latitudes (~54.5°S) situated 2400 kilometers north of VLC (Koch et al., 2019).

The “genetically distinct” VLC elephant seal populations that endured throughout the Holocene and even through Medieval times have tragically died off in the last few centuries due to the modern-era cooling gradient and subsequent ice cover expansion (Hall et al., 2023).

“Across all sites, there is a precipitous drop in the number and geographic extent of the SES [southern elephant seals] remains within the last millennium”

“…the documented population crash and abandonment of the entire coast by SES after ~1000-500 yr BP was due to return of heavy sea ice”

Image Source: Hall et al., 2023

And with the modern sea surface temperatures cooling and southern hemisphere sea ice expansion in recent decades, even the subantarctic islands in the South Pacific that SES are limited to occupying today may not be sufficiently warm and ice-free to accommodate remaining populations. Today’s southern elephant seals are thus ironically threatened by cooling in the era of anthropogenic global warming.

“[P]ack-ice expansion (both duration and extent) in the Ross Sea over the last several decades has been linked to reduced female foraging in this region, consequent low weaning weights and survival of pups, and ultimately the decline of the Macquarie Island population.” 

Interestingly, Hall et al. also report that not only have the last few centuries (including the present) been “the coldest, iciest conditions in the post-glacial period” (see the blue sea ice and red temperature trend lines on the Holocene timeline), but even the last glacial period had periods (~50,000 to 25,000 years ago) with less sea ice than today, allowing SES to occupy the VLC coast.

Image Source: Hall et al., 2023

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Comprehensive Russian Temperature Reconstruction Shows Warmer Temperatures 1000 Years Ago!

By on 14. April 2024

Dr. Michael E. Mann and the IPCC claims of a hockey stick temperature trend are challenged.

A paper published by a team of scientists of the Russian Academy of Sciences led by В. V. Klimenko presents a quantitative reconstruction of the mean annual temperatures of northeastern Europe for the last two millennia. The study was done in cooperation with the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation (Germany).

Result: it was modestly warmer 1000 years ago than it is today.

The reconstruction of the mean annual temperatures is based on dendrochronological, palynological and historical information, and shows the comparative chronology of climatic and historical events over a large region of Northeast Europe:

Figure 1. Map of the study region showing locations for which indirect climatic data are available.
Yellow circles indicate palynological data, green circles indicate dendrochronological data, and black circles indicate the most important historical evidence. Triangles indicate the location of long-row weather stations in and around the study region: Haparanda (1), Vardø (2), Arkhangelsk (3), Kem (4), Petrozavodsk (5), Malye Karmakuly (6), Salekhard (7), Tobolsk (8), Syktyvkar (9), Turukhansk (10), Tomsk (11), Yeniseysk (12). Source: here.

Warmer in the years 981-990 and in mid 20th century

Unlike what papers authored by scientists close to the IPCC like to suggest (a flat temperature mean over the past 1000 years followed by a 20th century hockey stick blade warming),the Russian reconstruction of decadal mean annual temperature values shows major climatic events manifested both on the scale of the entire Northern Hemisphere and in its separate regions.

Figure 4. Final reconstruction of decadal mean annual temperatures for Northeast Europe (blue line)
and instrumental data (red line). The instrumental period is enlarged in the inset. Source: here. 

According to the paper’s abstract:

In the pre-industrial era, the maximum annual mean temperatures in 981-990 were 1°C higher and minimum temperatures in 1811-1820 were 1.3°C lower than on average for 1951-1980. The constructed chronology has a noticeably larger amplitude of variability compared to hemispheric and pan-Arctic reconstructions.”

The paper concludes that the results of the reconstruction point to “major climatic events” such as the Roman Optimum, the cold epoch of the Great Migration of Peoples in the 5th and 6th centuries, the Medieval Climatic Optimum of the 10th-12th centuries, and the Little Ice Age (13th-19th centuries).

These were manifested both on the scale of the entire Northern Hemisphere, and its individual regions.

Hat-tip: inderwahrheitliegtdiekraft at X.




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Germany Electric Car Sales Plummet 30% As Country Floats Idea Of Weekend Driving Ban!

By on 13. April 2024

There’s been a drastic drop in the registration of new electric cars in Germany as sales of the “clean” electric cars have slumped nearly 30% compared to a year earlier, reports Germany’s online Blackout News here. 

Also: Germany’s transportation minister, Dr. Volker Wissing, threatens weekend driving ban (Fahrverbot) in order to meet climate targets! 

The massive sales drop is bad news for the current German socialist-green government, which aims to have 15 million vehicles on the road by 2030. Currently there are just 1.4 million!

The dismal trend underscores the unpopularity of electric cars and consumers’ hesitancy when it comes to purchasing them. Electric vehicles are plagued by limited range, sparse charging infrastructure, steep upfront purchase price and their huge environmental impact, which involves the largescale mining of rare earths.

“Their market share has fallen to just 11.9%. This casts a harsh light on the mismatch between Germany’s political goals and the reality of the automotive market. It is clear that political incentives and measures are inadequate,” reports Blackout News. “The abolition of the electric bonus at the end of 2023 has revealed another problem. The sector’s dependence on state subsidies became apparent. This has further exacerbated the crisis of confidence in the electric car market.”

Fahrverbot: Germany floats national weekend driving ban!

Another possible reason for hesitancy when it comes to purchasing a new car of any type may be partly due to the government’s general hostility to private mobility.

Germany’s federal minister of transportation, Dr. Volker Wissing, is threatening to ban driving on weekends by motorists in order othe country “to meet climate goals set forth by  the Climate Protection Act.”

“A reduction in traffic to help meet the climate goals would only be possible through measures that are difficult to communicate to the public, such as ‘comprehensive and indefinite driving bans on Saturdays and Sundays,’ Wissing added,” so reports Politico here.

Germany’s transportation sector would need to reduce CO2 by 22 million tonnes to meet its climate goals.

So, what’s the point of buying a new car when drivers nay be forced to leave them in the garage every weekend? Germany’s economy and energy policy has turned into a circus run by clowns.




 

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Three More New Temperature Reconstructions Document A Warmer Medieval Period

By on 11. April 2024

The North Atlantic, the Pacific Northwest (USA), and northern Finland were all warmer than today between 1000 and 2000 years ago.

Today’s (2000 CE) July air temperatures in the Azores – archipelago islands in the middle North Atlantic, ~1400 km west of Portugal – are visually shown to average about 10 to 11°C in a newly published reconstruction (Raposeiro et al., 2024).

This average air temperature is about 1 to 2°C warmer than this location’s Little Ice Age climate, or the coldest period (~9.1°C from 1750-1800) of the last 2000 years. However, the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) had temperatures reaching into the 13-15°C range, which is 3-4°C warmer than modern.

Image Source: Raposeiro et al., 2024

A temperature reconstruction from a lake in the USA’s Pacific Northwest (Baig, 2024) indicates glacial temperatures were only 1.0 to 1.6°C colder than the modern temperature, 12.2°C. Temperatures reached 13.7°C, or 1.5°C warmer than today, ~2500 years ago, and then fluctuated between 12.6 and 12.2°C from 1900 years ago until today, a period encompassing both the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age.

Image Source: Baig, 2024

Another lake sediment temperature reconstruction using branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) from northern Finland (Otiniano et al., 2024) suggests the modern temperature (represented as the blue diamond) is among the coldest of the last ~8000 years. Temperatures were much warmer than modern about 1200 to 1500 years ago, and throughout the period from 7000 to 3000 years ago.

Image Source: Otiniano et al., 2024

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The Lake Garda Climate-Freak-Show Disappears… Italy’s Largest Lake Now Overflowing!

By on 9. April 2024

A year ago, Europe’s media blared on about Lake Garda’s dangerously low level, and warned the lake risked drying out. Today, the water level is at a near high.

Nestled in northern Italy, Lake Garda is a favorite holiday destination for Germans. It has historic charm and is framed by the picturesque Dolomites to the north.

Just a year ago, the media and climate “experts”, however, were warning that Italy’s largest lake, at 370 square kilometers, risked drying up – a sure consequence of climate change, no doubt!

For example, last April the German Handelsblatt reported the lake had reached a “new low”, after a protracted drought period in the region:

German online weekly FOCUS here reported last year that the famous lake was “drying out” and was near an all-time low level.

“The water level has halved,” reported Munich’s Merkur.

German news magazine Stern chimed in and reported Lake Garda to be “only 38 percent full”!

Everywhere were hints it was all brought on by the climate crisis. All of Europe, in fact, risked drying out.

Drought-alarmism washed away

Then, in late 2023, the rains came across Europe. And how! Today we’re suddenly hearing only about floods and crop losses.

And what about Lake Garda? Official water level websites show the lake is now near the maximum level:

Image cropped from: Enti Regalatori Deo Grande Laghi

Currently, Lake Garda is well above the mean level, as the chart above shows, and all the fears of it going dry are gone! Now it’s overflowing, according to recent reports. The climate ambulance chasers have packed up their freak show and moved out of northern Italy.

Overall, Lake Garda’s length is 51.6 km and measures 17.2 km at its widest point. The maximum depth is 346 m and the main tributary of the lake is the river Sarca at Torbole in the north.




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Scientists Selectively Reject CO2 Measurements That Do Not Align With The Human-Caused Narrative

By on 8. April 2024

Reconstructions of paleo CO2 levels openly rely on data derived from plant stomata. But when modern (1800s-present) CO2 measurements from stomata conflict with the narrative that humans drive CO2 levels, they are patently rejected.

Scientists readily acknowledge plant stomata evidence from one location are “widely used as an effective tool for paleoenvironmental reconstructions” of global atmospheric CO2 from 1 to 150 million years ago (Badihagh et al., 2024).

For example, in a new study, 100-150 million-year-old stomata samples from Iran are shown to re-confirm global atmospheric CO2 levels hit 1,100 to 1,700 ppm during the Jurassic period. The authors proudly showcase how consistently their stomata-derived CO2 measurements compare to several other reconstructions reaching the same conclusion about past CO2 concentrations.

Image Source: Badihagh et al., 2024

But that’s where the stomata-are-an-effective-paleo-CO2-measuring-tool perspective stops.

Whereas millions of years ago CO2 data derived from stomata were thought to be accurate, direct stomata measurements recorded in scientific papers from only a century ago – even the 1940s and 1950s – are regarded as not accurate. They must be rejected.

Dr. Ernst-Georg Beck’s compiled research with plant stomata-derived CO2 measurements was posthumously published in 2022. It’s an exhaustively-referenced paper detailing 97,404 direct near-ground measurement from 901 stations situated across the world, in both hemispheres. (This is very much unlike the ice core CO2 record in which only one continental location, Antarctica, is used; and yet this local record – contradicted by Greenland ice cores – is regarded as “global”.)

The research was recorded in 292 scientific papers (77 authors) covering stomata-derived direct CO2 measurements for the industrial era, 1800-1960.

These database compilations – ~60,000 global-scale measurements between the 1930s and 1950s alone – consistently show CO2 hit 380 ppm in 1943 and 372 ppm in 1950, with very small error margins after about 1870.

The currently accepted CO2 values for 1943 and 1950 are instead recorded as 310 ppm, and the 372 to 380 ppm values are not assumed to have been achieved until the mid-2000s. A data-driven portrayal of a decadal-scale decline in CO2 after the 1940s peak (shown in Fig. 24) contradicts the viewpoint that sharply rising anthropogenic CO2 emissions after 1945 led to tandemly increasing CO2 concentrations. Consequently, these direct CO2 measurements – tens of thousands of them from across the world – are rejected by the gatekeepers of the humans-did-it narrative.

Further, the stomata-derived CO2 values also indicate the temperature is the leading factor determining the CO2 concentration, with the CO2 changes correlationally (r = 0.67) lagging the temperature changes by about a year. This once again conflicts with the conclusion that CO2 levels are determined by anthropogenic emissions.

Image Source: Beck, 2022

Another stomatal CO2 study published nearly 20 years ago also documents ±100 ppm CO2 changes over the last few centuries, with a peak of about 380 ppm in the 1940s. Like Beck’s work, this too must be rejected, as it doesn’t align with the human-caused angle.

Image Source: Kouwenberg et al., 2005

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German Scientists Claim To Have Predicted 2023 El Niño – After It Occurred!

By on 7. April 2024

German scientists find it’s possible to predict the past with high certainty!

Klimanachricten here reports that physicists from Giessen and Potsdam (Germany) published a paper explaining how they had developed a method for the early prediction of El Niño events. One of the authors is Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber, the former director of the climate-alarmist Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

According to the press release:

‘We can now correctly predict the type of an upcoming El Niño with a probability of 86 percent,’ says Josef Ludescher, first author of the study and former PhD student of Armin Bunde. ‘This means that if we obtain a forecast from our climate network at the end of the year that an El Niño is on its way and our new method indicates a Central Pacific El Nino, then we can already give some all-clear for the coming fall and winter.'”

The press release adds:

Using our method, we had already predicted this year’s East Pacific El Niño in December 2022.”

But as Klmanachrichten points out, why hadn’t the researchers published that forecast in 2022? Publishing predictions when the event has already taken place is easy!

The answer is likely because the Ludescher/Bunde/Schellnhuber group had unpleasant personal reasons for withholding their forecast. Back on November 4, 2019, they had already made an embarrassing false prediction when the PIK published a press release on the same topic. It stated: “there will probably be another ‘El Niño’ by the end of 2020.” That prediction turned out wrong.

In 2019 press release, the authors boasted of a “groundbreaking early forecast based on a novel algorithm” and PIK director Schellnhuber claimed the probability of an El Niño’ coming in 2020 was “around 80 percent”.

That forecast flopped totally. At the end of 2020, there was not the predicted El Niño, but rather a La Niña.

So it’s no surprise that the authors refused to make their 2022 prediction public. Only after the El Niño actually appeared in 2023 did they come out and publicly claim to have predicted it a year earlier.




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New Study: Global Wetland Loss Since 1700 “Far Less” Than Previously Estimated

By on 6. April 2024

EIKE latest climate video (German) here reports on a recent Stanford University-led study that found global wetlands losses had been grossly overestimated, too pessimistic.

Image cropped here. 

According to the study, the U.S. has accounted for more wetland conversion and degradation than any other country. Overall, the study investigated wetlands in 144 countries.

Researchers find that the wetland ecosystems area has declined 21-35% (3.36 million square kilometers, an area larger than India)) since 1700 – due to human intervention, e.g. drainage. Though this may sound dramatic, it is “far less than the 50-87% losses estimated by previous studies.”

It needs to be noted that data before 1850 is scarce.

“Discovering that fewer wetlands have been lost than we previously thought gives us a second chance to take action against further declines,” said study co-author Peter McIntyre, an ecologist at Cornell University. “These results provide a guide for prioritizing conservation and restoration.”




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